China set its 2024 GDP growth target at about 5%, the same as that for 2023, but what about its oil demand?
China’s oil demand is still growing in 2024, but at a much slower pace than in 2023 in which refinery crude throughput surged 1.18 million bbl/day to a record high of 14.70 million bbl/day against all the talks about the country’s demand being weaker than expected. So, why is the country’s oil demand growing much slower in 2024 when its GDP target remains the same? Is it because the country is moving so fast with its green transition?
How soon are we going to see China’s oil demand peak?
Meanwhile, Chinese refiners, whether state-owned or independent, are under increasing pressure from oil product sales amid an increasing overcapacity and growing competition, before China removes more outdated units. Are large exports still an option?
Apart from product sales, independent refiners face more challenges regarding feedstock purchase because of international geopolitical tensions, in addition to strengthening regulation oversight.
We’ll be happy to share with you our insights into these hotspots at the Singapore forum in April 2024.